![]() As the energy and transportation industries create a path to decarbonize, sectors in which climate effects are hard to abate are coming under more pressure, and aviation is no exception. But the target for all industries, companies, and countries is to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, as laid out in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change goals of limiting global warming to no more than 1.5☌ above preindustrial levels. We don’t know what the pandemic will mean for emissions growth over time. In 2009, it set ambitious targets that include carbon-neutral growth from 2020 onward and halving its net emissions from 2005 levels by 2050. The aviation industry has taken steps to address rising emissions. The trick is to create a suitable regulatory framework and supporting incentives so that no single player is penalized for going it alone. To help push options forward, airlines can make targeted investments and purchase commitments that would increase SAF use (currently at less than 1 percent of total consumed jet fuel) while reducing costs.īecause of the scale of the challenge, any solution will require a multistakeholder approach that also includes governments, tech players, and suppliers. While SAF has drawbacks, including high prices and supply concerns, airline CEOs should view it as a promising tool in their decarbonization tool kits. Compared with fossil kerosene, SAF could mean a reduction in carbon emissions of 70 percent to almost 100 percent. ![]() The option that could be transformative, aligning the industry’s growth ambitions with Paris Agreement targets, is sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Carbon offsetting holds more promise, and it can help serve as a bridge while the industry takes action needed to reduce its own emissions over time. Modernizing fleets and improving operational efficiency are important however, in the best case, annual industry growth counters the emissions that they save. The current crisis could provide forward-thinking airlines with a chance to emphasize their fuel-efficiency programs and justify the retirement of older, less-fuel-efficient aircraft (see sidebar, “ Ten questions airline executives should be asking”). The industry has a solid record on fuel efficiency: fuel burn per passenger-kilometer has dropped by half since 1990, according to the International Air Transport Association. Forces that have buoyed the case for sustainability-including customers and regulators worried about emissions and unpredictable future carbon policies-have shifted with the pandemic, as airlines’ survival seems to be at stake. That transition provides an opportunity to rebuild the industry for a low-carbon future, something that airlines have been grappling with for some time.Įven before the coronavirus pandemic began, the industry was facing the challenge of reducing its carbon emissions in line with international goals to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. In the longer term, aviation is likely to undergo structural changes with regard to demand and the degree of industry consolidation, along with unprecedented government support.
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